Chances and Risks in Construction Management and Economics: A Systemic Approach to Dealing with Models and Uncertainties

The book outlines the processes of calculating and critically reviewing construction costs and times for clients and contractors in different project phases. Any project or structural analysis should yield accurate information on times, costs, and prices. The related database is more or less uncertain depending on project complexity and the circumstances of work performance. It is thus recommended to use ranges of key input parameters. This approach consistently considers uncertainties within a holistic project view, thus enhancing the plausibility and validity of specific values. Only the integration of probabilistic methods will allow for calculating and graphically representing the chance/risk ratio as a crucial project variable ultimately influencing the entire business.

This book examines the systemic modeling and consideration of uncertainties when determining construction costs and times, and life-cycle costs. It contains detailed descriptions of other decision-making processes, including project preparation and planning (developer calculation, soil survey, cost estimate), work preparation (costing, pricing, construction time evaluation, resource identification, comparison of construction methods, bid analysis, contract award), and project execution (site logistics, construction method selection, construction process planning, work coordination, sourcing, determination of additional costs, trend analyses), as well as for project portfolio management as a tool relevant to all phases.