Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice
暫譯: 在深度不確定性下的決策：從理論到實踐

Marchau, Vincent A. W. J., Walker, Warren E., Bloemen, Pieter J. T. M.

Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice
  • 出版商: Springer
  • 出版日期: 2019-04-15
  • 售價: $2,610
  • 貴賓價: 9.5 折 $2,480
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 405
  • 裝訂: Hardcover - also called cloth, retail trade, or trade
  • ISBN: 3030052516
  • ISBN-13: 9783030052515

    • 海外代購書籍(需單獨結帳)

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商品描述

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them.
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.
The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

這本開放存取的書籍專注於面對深度不確定性時的決策工具和方法的理論與實踐。它探討了在深度不確定性下支持戰略計劃設計的工具和方法，以及它們在現實世界中的測試，包括在實踐中使用的障礙和促進因素。這本書擴展了傳統的方法和工具，納入了與當前問題相關的行為者和網絡的分析。它還展示了在應用過程中學到的教訓如何用來改善設計過程中使用的方法和工具。這本書提供了識別和應用適當方法和工具以設計計劃的指導，以及在現實世界中實施這些計劃的建議。對於決策者和實踐者，這本書包括現實的例子和實用的指導，應該能幫助他們理解在深度不確定性下的決策是什麼，以及它如何能對他們有所幫助。

《在深度不確定性下的決策：從理論到實踐》分為四個部分。第一部分介紹了五種在深度不確定性下設計戰略計劃的方法：穩健決策（Robust Decision Making）、動態適應規劃（Dynamic Adaptive Planning）、動態適應政策路徑（Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways）、信息缺口決策理論（Info-Gap Decision Theory）和工程選項分析（Engineering Options Analysis）。每種方法都從其理論基礎、使用該方法時需遵循的方法步驟、最新的方法論見解以及改進挑戰等方面進行詳細說明。第二部分介紹了這些方法的應用。基於最近的案例研究，深入討論了應用每種方法的實際意義。第三部分專注於在現實世界背景下使用這些方法和工具，基於現實案例的見解。第四部分包含結論和可以從設計、應用和實施深度不確定性下的戰略計劃中得出的教訓的綜合，以及對未來工作的建議。

本書的出版得到了拉德布德大學（Radboud University）、蘭德公司（RAND Corporation）、代爾夫特理工大學（Delft University of Technology）和德爾塔瑞斯（Deltares）的資助。

作者簡介

Vincent A. W. J. Marchau (Radboud University (RU) - Nijmegen School of Management) holds the chair on Uncertainty and Adaptivity of Societal Systems. The chair is supported by The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT). He received a Ph.D. from TU Delft in 2000 for his research on technology assessment of Automated Vehicle Guidance. Marchau is also Managing Director of the Dutch Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics (TRAIL), with 100 Ph.D. students and 50 staff members across 6 Dutch universities. His research focuses on long-term planning under uncertainty in transportation, logistics, spatial planning, energy, water, and security. He has been involved as a principal researcher within various national (e.g. NWO) and international (e.g. EU) projects regarding transport innovation assessment, long-term planning and decisionmaking under uncertainty in several domains. In addition to his professorship, Marchau is a member of the editorial board of EJTIR, IET-ITS, guest-editor of different scientific journals, and fellow of the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM). For several years, Marchau has worked closely with several societal partners, including: The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (organizing (a) courses for transport policymakers, and (b) projects on long-term planning); STT (on (a) foresight projects in the fields of e.g. transport, water, and energy, and (b) courses on decisionmaking under uncertainty); and the RAND Corporation/World Bank (organizing the annual workshop for decisionmaking under deep uncertainty for academics and practitioners).

Warren E. Walker is an emeritus Professor of Policy Analysis in both the faculty of Technology, Policy and Management and the Aerospace faculty at Delft University of Technology. He has a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Cornell University, and more than 40 years of experience as an analyst and project leader at the RAND Corporation, applying quantitative analysis to public policy problems at the local, regional, national, and international levels. His recent research has focused on methods for dealing with deep uncertainty in making public policies (especially with respect to climate change), improving the freight transport system in the Netherlands, and the design of decision support systems for airport strategic planning. He has led several large policy studies for the Netherlands Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, most of which have involved cost-effectiveness analyses of complex problems with multiple stakeholders in which a range of impacts of alternative policies are assessed and tradeoffs are made among the environmental, economic, and social impacts. He has been a special advisor to the Director for Freight Policy in the Netherlands Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, and has carried out strategic planning studies for that Directorate. He was a member of the Scientific Committee of a project for the European Commission that helped to design a European Transportation Information System (ETIS). He is the recipient of the 1997 President's Award from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) for his "contributions to the welfare of society through quantitative analysis of governmental policy problems."

Pieter Bloemen is the Chief Strategic Officer of the Dutch Delta Programme. He is responsible for the formulation of the core values of the Delta Programme, for the development and application of Adaptive Delta Management and of the Comparison Scheme that was used for the selection of the preferred regional strategies. He led the Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Deltadecisions and preferred regional strategies that are presented in "Deltaprogramme 2015", and presently works on the development of a monitoring and evaluation system that matches the adaptive approach of the Delta Programme. Bloemen was the program leader of the National Program on Climate Adaptation and Spatial Planning (ARK Program) that developed the first National Adaptation Strategy of the Netherlands in 2007. He was advisor spatial planning and climate adaptation to His Royal Highness Willem Alexander and member of the quarter-making team of the Delta Programme. Before joining the national government in 2000, he worked, from 1986 onward, at the international consultancy company IWACO. At IWACO Bloemen worked three years in West Africa (geophysics for urban water supply). In the Netherlands he worked on groundwater modeling, environmental impact assessment and mediation, and was head of the department of Water and Spatial Planning at the Head Office in Rotterdam. He is Visiting Researcher at Unesco-IHE in Delft (Chair Group Flood Resilience) since January 2015, and is now working on a PhD on the governance of the adaptive approach.

Steven W. Popper (RAND Corporation) is a RAND Senior Economist and professor of science and technology policy in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His work on macro transitions led to an invitation by President Vaclav Havel to advise the government of Czechoslovakia, participation in an OECD delegation on the first foreign visit to one of the secret cities of the former Soviet Union, and consultation to the World Bank on issues of industrial restructuring in Hungary and in Mexico. His work on micro-level transition focuses on innovation. From 1996 to 2001 he was the Associate Director of the Science and Technology Policy Institute, providing analytic support to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and other executive branch agencies. He has taught planning under deep uncertainty at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the India School of Business, and the Shanghai Climate Institute. He is co-developer of the Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach. He is an elected a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, served as chair of the AAAS Industrial Science and Technology section and is the founding chair for education and training of the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

**Vincent A. W. J. Marchau**（拉德堡大學（Radboud University） - 奈梅亨管理學院（Nijmegen School of Management））擔任社會系統不確定性與適應性的講座教授。該講座由荷蘭科技趨勢研究中心（The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends, STT）支持。他於2000年在代爾夫特科技大學（TU Delft）獲得博士學位，研究主題為自動化車輛引導的技術評估。Marchau同時也是荷蘭運輸、基礎設施與物流研究學校（Dutch Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics, TRAIL）的執行董事，該學校擁有100名博士生和50名教職員，分布於6所荷蘭大學。他的研究重點在於交通、物流、空間規劃、能源、水資源和安全等領域的不確定性下的長期規劃。他作為主要研究者參與了多個國內（例如NWO）和國際（例如EU）項目，這些項目涉及交通創新評估、長期規劃及不確定性下的決策制定。除了教授職務外，Marchau還是EJTIR、IET-ITS的編輯委員會成員，並擔任多本科學期刊的客座編輯，以及荷蘭交通政策分析研究所（KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, KiM）的研究員。多年來，Marchau與多個社會夥伴密切合作，包括：基礎設施與水資源管理部（組織（a）交通政策制定者的課程，以及（b）長期規劃項目）；STT（在（a）交通、水資源和能源等領域的前瞻性項目，以及（b）不確定性下的決策課程）；以及RAND公司/世界銀行（組織每年一次的深度不確定性下的決策研討會，供學術界和實務界參加）。

**Warren E. Walker**是代爾夫特科技大學技術、政策與管理學院及航空航天學院的名譽政策分析教授。他擁有康奈爾大學的運籌學博士學位，並在RAND公司擔任分析師和項目負責人超過40年，專注於將定量分析應用於地方、區域、國家和國際層面的公共政策問題。他最近的研究集中於應對公共政策（特別是氣候變遷）中的深度不確定性的方法、改善荷蘭的貨運系統，以及為機場戰略規劃設計決策支持系統。他為荷蘭交通、公共工程與水資源管理部領導了幾個大型政策研究，大多數涉及多方利益相關者的複雜問題的成本效益分析，評估替代政策的各種影響並在環境、經濟和社會影響之間進行權衡。他曾擔任荷蘭交通、公共工程與水資源管理部貨運政策主任的特別顧問，並為該局進行戰略規劃研究。他是歐洲委員會一個項目的科學委員會成員，該項目幫助設計歐洲交通信息系統（ETIS）。他是1997年運籌學與管理科學學會（INFORMS）總統獎的獲得者，以表彰他在通過定量分析政府政策問題方面對社會福利的貢獻。

**Pieter Bloemen**是荷蘭三角洲計劃的首席戰略官。他負責三角洲計劃的核心價值觀的制定，以及自適應三角洲管理和用於選擇首選區域策略的比較方案的開發與應用。他主導了三角洲決策和在《三角洲計劃2015》中提出的首選區域策略的戰略環境評估，目前正在開發與三角洲計劃的自適應方法相匹配的監測和評估系統。Bloemen曾是國家氣候適應與空間規劃計劃（ARK計劃）的項目負責人，該計劃於2007年制定了荷蘭的第一個國家適應策略。他曾擔任威廉·亞歷山大王子的空間規劃和氣候適應顧問，並是三角洲計劃的四分之一決策小組成員。在2000年加入國家政府之前，他自1986年起在國際顧問公司IWACO工作。在IWACO，Bloemen在西非工作了三年（城市供水的地球物理學）。在荷蘭，他從事地下水建模、環境影響評估和調解工作，並擔任鹿特丹總部水資源與空間規劃部門的負責人。他自2015年1月起擔任聯合國教科文組織-國際水資源管理研究所（Unesco-IHE）訪問研究員（洪水韌性研究小組），目前正在進行有關自適應方法治理的博士研究。

**Steven W. Popper**（RAND公司）是RAND的高級經濟學家及帕爾迪RAND研究生院的科學與技術政策教授。他在宏觀轉型方面的工作使他受到捷克斯洛伐克總統哈維爾的邀請，為捷克斯洛伐克政府提供建議，參加了經合組織（OECD）代表團，進行了對前蘇聯秘密城市的首次外訪，並就匈牙利和墨西哥的產業重組問題向世界銀行提供諮詢。他在微觀層面轉型方面的工作專注於創新。從1996年到2001年，他擔任科學與技術政策研究所的副主任，為白宮科學與技術政策辦公室及其他行政機構提供分析支持。他在帕爾迪RAND研究生院、印度商學院和上海氣候研究所教授深度不確定性下的規劃。他是穩健決策（Robust Decision Making, RDM）方法的共同開發者。他當選為美國科學促進會（American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS）的研究員，曾擔任AAAS工業科學與技術部門的主席，並是深度不確定性下決策協會的教育與培訓創始主席。

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