Flawed Strategy: Why Smart Leaders Make Bad Decisions

Heuser, Beatrice

  • 出版商: Polity
  • 出版日期: 2025-03-24
  • 售價: $1,070
  • 貴賓價: 9.5$1,017
  • 語言: 英文
  • 頁數: 192
  • 裝訂: Quality Paper - also called trade paper
  • ISBN: 1509566708
  • ISBN-13: 9781509566709
  • 尚未上市,無法訂購

相關主題

商品描述

Why did Volodymyr Zelensky doubt that Russia was preparing a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022? Why did British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain decide to "do business with Herr Hitler" in Munich in 1938? And how was it that Israeli elites dismissed intelligence warnings of the Hamas attack in 2023? Had they not learned their lesson from the Egyptian-Syrian attack on Yom Kippur fifty years earlier?

In all these cases, smart decision-makers misjudged their adversaries, largely because they failed to understand how their enemies' actions and strategies were shaped by different values and beliefs to their own. We may think such beliefs are irrational merely because we do not share them. They may appear confusing and ill-judged. But as Beatrice Heuser ably shows in this pithy book, strategy-making is a tricky business, marred by bias, irrationality, bureaucratic politics, colliding government interests, and complex procedures and structures. Assessing our adversaries as 'rational actors' is a dangerous game that can lead to flawed and, on occasions, catastrophically bad decisions. This book explains why.

商品描述(中文翻譯)

為什麼沃洛基米爾·澤倫斯基在2022年懷疑俄羅斯正在準備對烏克蘭進行全面入侵?為什麼英國首相內維爾·張伯倫在1938年決定在慕尼黑與希特勒“做生意”?又為什麼以色列精英在2023年忽視了有關哈馬斯攻擊的情報警告?難道他們沒有從五十年前的贖罪日埃及-敘利亞攻擊中吸取教訓嗎?

在這些案例中,聰明的決策者錯誤地評估了他們的對手,主要是因為他們未能理解敵人的行動和策略是如何受到與自己不同的價值觀和信念所影響的。我們可能認為這些信念是不理性的,僅僅因為我們不認同它們。它們可能看起來令人困惑且判斷失誤。然而,正如比阿特麗斯·霍伊瑟在這本簡潔的書中所清楚表明的,制定策略是一項棘手的工作,受到偏見、非理性、官僚政治、政府利益衝突以及複雜程序和結構的影響。將對手評估為“理性行為者”是一場危險的遊戲,可能導致錯誤的決策,有時甚至是災難性的壞決策。本書解釋了原因。

作者簡介

Beatrice Heuser is Chair of International Relations at the University of Glasgow. She is the author of many books on the history of strategic thought and defence policy.

作者簡介(中文翻譯)

Beatrice Heuser 是格拉斯哥大學國際關係系的主任。她是多本有關戰略思想和防衛政策歷史的書籍的作者。